Hi there. What do you guys think the next big thing in animation will be? Say in 3 to 5 years time.
Someone asked me and I wanted to see what you all thought. I'm guessing its going to be stop motion but I may be wrong?
the next big thing
By after_eight | Sunday, October 30, 2005 at 10:52am
#1
the next big thing
Why do stop motion when CGI can do it better and cheaper?
I suspect that the "next big thing" is going to be something software related, that makes productions go smoother and cost less--possibly a version of FLASH or MAYA that is easier to use/learn.
There's so many areas that are being constantly developed that a new thing could come from any direction.
Tools, techniques, training, software, hardware, politics........the animation field covers a lot of ground.
"We all grow older, we do not have to grow up"--Archie Goodwin ( 1937-1998)
Software with a suppository shaped periphiral that will enable a studio head, that when he concentrates and pushes real hard with his sphincter, the film will appear finished on the magic computer box. No more messy real creative people to interfere with the bottom line!
Seriously:
The rediscovery of straightforward, unaffected, vision-driven story telling.
This will come about because a small indpendant studio, unhindered by marketers and big studio producers, will produce a surprise huge box-office hit, a Farenheit 911 of animation box-office wise, if you will.
Medium of choice is immaterial.
One future item: There's going to be a big push to do things in 3D (like with the glasses).
The big FX directors (Lucas and Cameron for instance) are working very hard on systems. They use lenses that are synched up to the projector. Instead of separating colors (and subsequently loosing color fidelity) they blink on and off displaying the full color image to each eye separately. If you've been to Disney World in the past 10 years or so, they've been doing it there with "Honey I Shrunk the Audience," "A Bug's Life Experience," etc. It looks pretty good, but too much of it tended to really strain my eyes.
Lucas is reworking all of the Star Wars films in 3D (yes, even the originals). So, they can rework old films to look 3D and it'll be even easier to do it if they plan on it from the start. They want people to buy their own glasses for 20 bucks and you can watch it at home then. Digital projectors will make this even easier, too.
Could be cool. But without a good story it's just another gimick.
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Both very interesting. You see when I asked my mate he immediately said Stop motion, and hes convinced of it. But of course he does it so hes bound to say that. I need other peoples un bias opinions.
How would they go about improving the art of storytelling if thats whats needed?
Yeah I guess, I don't think I really see anything major happening in terms of materials used.
Will 2d make a come back on the big screen?
EEk so if everything is going to look even more 3D then is stop motion going to die?
No. Just like 2d isn't going to die. You can easily shoot a stop motion film in 3d with a dual camera setup. Even 2D can take advantage of multi-plane effects pretty easily. When I say 3D I'm not referring to CG necessarily, just 3 dimensions, which stop motion lends itself to very nicely.
As far as Stop Motion being "the next big thing", I'd say unlikely due to the expense. Money drives everything in Hollywood and stop motion is about as expensive as it gets. And if he mentions Corpse Bride and Wallace and Grommit, point out that when stop motion was more feasible than CG, it didn't become the "next big thing" after The Nightmare Before Christmas, James and the Giant Peach, and Chicken Run.
But that doesn't mean that people won't continue to do it, thankfully. Basically, it's unlikely that there will ever be one Omega Animation style. It all goes in waves.
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[QUOTE=after_eight]How would they go about improving the art of storytelling if thats whats needed?
Some might not consider more mature themes and plots in animation an improvement, but the upcoming crop of animation students will likely have a great effect on the industry in this manner. Granted, it might take an extra 10 years beyond the original posts' timeline for them to rise through the animation ranks, but it IS coming. The note of interest about these kids are the ones who were captivated by the rising escape from "feel-good do-good" cartoons that were beginning to appear in the late 90s.
I can think of two examples off the top of my head:
1. At the risk of igniting yet another anime bashing session (ugh), the very reason Toonami and Adult Swim are still on Cartoon Network is because they bring viewers. Whatever your opinion on non-Western animation may be, consider this: these teens and tweens who made Toonami a success are now creating their own work and projects--a large portion of which are no doubt influcenced by what they enjoyed on TV when they were younger, and a portion of THAT is continuous, dark-themed, emotional anime.
2. Coming back to North America, how about South Park? There we have scathing, unforgiving satire about current events and politics all hidden in dirty jokes, bathroom humor, and the bashing of pop-culture. And yet it's animated! South Park is...what...8 years old now? So the animators who as kids who snuck past Mom and Dad to watch the forbidden cartoon's early years are likely already on the hunt for animation employment, and they are brewing up their own story ideas.
Whatever the influence, if you consider the immense range of possible stories that exists beyond the family-safe/kid sphere, the potential for animation writing is boundless and extremely exciting. Of course, this all stems on the hopeful chance of the animators actually being able to create original stories, rather than being handed a mouse/stylus/pencil and ordered to whip up yet more Scooby Doo. As mentioned by someone else in this thread, a story and character-driven breakout movie will most likely come from the independent film realm. The idea of one of us creating a film that becomes as big a hit as My Big Fat Greek Wedding gives me chills. *^^*
We'll just have to be patient. And keep animation as an art form alive, of course. :D
Hopeful smiles,
s2m
I don't like that thought much, at least not when it's about the storytelling and art aspect of animation. I don't think anyone ever told Michelangelo he could've had a much easier time just painting David instead of spending years inhaling marble dust and getting chisel marks all over his hands. (OK, so David was commissioned work, but you get the idea.) I prefer to believe that it's like what L. Finston told us about what his mother said, that no method really ever "replaces" another. I think that's true especially in art. I also believe there's a reason why Tim Burton had Corpse Bride done in stop motion rather than CG. I don't mean to say I expect stop motion to ever rule the animation market as a medium - but it's good to know it'll be around even though there are "better" and "cheaper" methods these days.
Stop-motion was a "big thing" when King Kong was released. That was 70 years ago.
No, the next "big thing" will probably be another computer advancement.
That is simply idiotic. Just because new techniques and media come along doesn't mean that old ones will be destroyed. There are thousands of similarly stupid assumptions made throughout history.
[list]
[*] When photography came along 150 years ago, retards of that era declared that painting and etching were dead. Yet, to this day, people are still using oils and plates.
[*] When desktop computers came along 30 years ago, morons of that era declared that pen and paper were dead. Yet, to this day, people still write and draw on paper.
[*] When 3D animation came along 15 years ago, imbeciles of that era declared that 2D animation was dead. Yet, to this day, there are still 2D cartoons.
[/list]So, no, stop-motion will never be a "BIG THING" again, but it will always be with us, and that's what's important: not that it ascends to the top of the heap, but that it retains a place in culture.
i would expect the next big changes to be in the background during the production end rather than the visual end. of course most things will become more and more possible to do, getting more realistic i reckon. the one day theyll have to chuck it all and go back to good old fashioned toons.
Go to Sigraph and that's about the only thing anyone gets worked up over anymore.
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I'm gonna say a tactile 3D holographic interface simular to the thing Tom Cruz scrubs through in "Minority Report." Thats what I'm waiting for, but I think thats a little farther off then 3-5 years. Thats ok, I can wait.
Aloha,
the Ape
...we must all face a choice, between what is right... and what is easy."
When I suggested that stop motion might die... What I really meant was that we would see less of it and it would become more of an art form. So possibly due to production speed/cost, more kids TV would be done on computers? Then again, having been there, I can't imagine Cosgrove Hall not having much stop motion in production. Its the most lively part of the building. Will it last?
You're going to see whatever's cheapest on TV the most. At the moment, it's Flash (or vector) based animation. A majority of the new shows appear to be in this style. CG is still very expensive by comparison, but that's changing.
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Now with more doodling!
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it will always be about entertainment. the colossal flop that Father of the Pride was proves that people dont blindly go picking on format.
Content is always going to be king. i dont think the mechanics of production will ever dictate content.
i dont see any of the forms dying out. all i see is a dearth of subject matter for each medium.
Stop-motion features have consistantly been quite cost-effective. Look up the budgets. They are typically 1/2 to 1/3 the budget of mainstream traditional and CG films.
The idea that stop-motion is prohibitively expensive is a widespread and baffiling fallacy. It has long been a popular medium for lower budget children's television programs. With the assistance of computers it has only gotten cheaper. The reason stop-motion has not been as widespread as 2d animation is that traditionally it did not lend itself as well to a production-line environment, since unless you have multiple copys of puppet and set, you can only have one animator working at a time. So stop-motion typically works better with smaller crews. This is also why the budgets don't tend to sky-rocket, and why you often get more originality.
As for the future of animation, I think games are going to make all kinds of leaps and bounds visually. Everyone likes to think that all the mediums of animation have their place and can coexist, but in gaming, CG rules the roost, and nothing else really stands a chance. Another thing I keep a cautious eye on is procedural animation.
the next big thing .. .the death of "Creative Producers" and morons who who always have their foot in our mouths when we are animation. :D
I was really hoping this would happen fast , 3-5 years is a bit too long :(
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Some other examples to add to this list:
- When television first started getting popular people (especially Hollywood) thought the movie industry was going to die. But, movies are still being made today. (Thanks part and parcel to the invention of Cinemascope).
- When movies started to become popular some thought that the art of performing live in a theatre would die off. One off-shoot of it did, namely vaudeville, but theatre performances are still done today either on Braodway or elsewhere.
One thing I'd like to add to this thread, as an artist I think it's very unhealthy to always be looking for the "next big thing". That's what idiot producers are always doing and that's why they make the stupid decisions that they do. The best way to go about it is to find YOUR thing. Whether your thing becomes part of the mainstream or a small niche market is immaterial. It's best just to find a place to work where YOU are comfortable, where the bosses are nice (if there are any) and you can just have fun doing what you do and be paid for it on top of that.
Really, when you look throughout animation's history, NONE of the revolutionary artists were ever looking for the next big thing. They just entered the industry and managed to do what they wanted to do. And, through chance, some of the things they did cerated the "next big thing". Individuals who managed to accomplish such things of note were Windsor McCay, Otto Messmer, Walt Disney, Max & Dave Fleischer, Freddy Moore, Tex Avery, Chuck Jones, John Lassetter, and John Kricfalusi to name a few.
Like I said before, just relax and do what you do best. Let history decide if it's the next big thing or not.
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Don't worry Haredevil Hare I'm just going to stick to what I've always done... stop motion and model making.
Thought about this some more:
I think the "next big thing" will be in marketing.
The trend will become bypassing theatre releases all together and just focusing on DVD sales. It will likely mean that more projects will be green-lit with smaller budgets to offset the percieved loss from not having a theatrical release, but could be offset for the industry by having more releases.
This will be for "first-time" projects and not just cheapquels. As box-office takes drop and home-viewing increases, the logical step is to focus on the growing trend rather than to try and save a dying one.
"We all grow older, we do not have to grow up"--Archie Goodwin ( 1937-1998)
I believe the next big thing is a move away from bigwig studio's and we are most likely going to see an increase of independent animation. Thanks to the internet, this is where a lot of things are most likely going to lead. The music industry is on the same path.
Lindsey Keess
Animator
Yes, but "bigwig" studios almost always started out as independent studios: Disney, Pixar, PDI, Schlesinger, Hanna-Barbera, on and on.
The successful independent studios of today will be the "bigwig" studios of tomorrow.
I understand that but I mean there will be less and less focus on large studio's. There will be more independent films that will most likely be distributed over the internet, and shown in film festivals. It's getting increasingly easier and cheaper to produce animation. Knowing that, a lot of animators will opt. to do their own creations on their own terms, pay out of their own pocket and gather together other animators to colaberate with who would share in the wealth of the finished product. If they are successful, they most likely would contine to create more animaitons in the same fassion rather then form a large studio. Or if they do form a studio, they would keep it small and simple.
If you look closely, you can see this already starting to happen, the industry is getting oversaturated with out of work animators, especially younger ones who already have a current job elswhere to support, and work on their free time.
It's just a theory mind you, but a possible future.
Lindsey Keess
Animator
Hello
In the future, the folks in the suites will finally discover that it's the stories and characters that count and not the technique... 2D, stopnotion, etc, will be rediscovered!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Larry
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I second that , Larry !
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Yes, I do agree my good man.
Lindsey Keess
Animator
Heck, we even have styluses, portable notebooks (not the laptops, I mean PDA-style things, and Wacoms... Even for the people that own those things it hasn't seemed to make a dent
Morons, imbeciles, and retards are pretty outspoken... =P
i think man is about evolution. people tend not to consider how things develop and affect users and others associated with them
im sure there were people who thought we couldnt fly, same time there were some who never thought it would catch on & somoene who thought it would kill rail.
it takes all kinds. things die and they are revived. even the smartest one can only make a best guess.
I am hoping it would be 2D again?...
I predict that the praxinoscope will make a big comeback.
You heard it here first. :p
I sure can't wait ;)