ANIMATION WORLD MAGAZINE - ISSUE 4.10 - JANUARY 2000

Fearless Predictions
(Continued from page 1)

3. Original feature animation directed at kids will remain a Disney monopoly.

No matter how hard they try, not one studio has been able to break this barrier. In case you didn't notice, creative and/or production quality is not the question. Minds greater than mine have been burning the midnight oil attempting to get past the public's resistance to non-Disney originals for kids, but only properties adapted from other sources ("pre-sold" -- e.g., Pokemon) have done it so far. The rewards for success in this market are enormous, and it is possible that someone will do it, but the chances are very slim. (Pre-sold properties will continue to succeed, so the news isn't all that bad for the folks at the disks.)

4. Prime time TV animation will continue to expand.

Animation is usually cheaper than most live-action (reality excepted), and the actors don't talk back (or at least not too much). Done well, animation allows re-runs to continue forever, and the international market absorbs cartoons more easily than live-action. These add up to a compelling argument that goes down well with the MBA types watching over all the major production/distribution outlets.

5. Speaking of the majors, their power will be much diminished in the future.

The advent of digital TV and the continued growth of the Web will combine to loosen the control of the traditional gatekeepers. We are in the midst of a major shift in electronic communication patterns: the new multi-point to multi-point model is rapidly replacing the old single-point to multi-point regime. Under the old system, the gatekeepers raked off the majority of the profits, much to the detriment of the originator. This disintermediation will benefit the creator enormously.

6. The New Media will be a veritable paradise for animation.

I always like to end on the upbeat and leaving this for last gives me the chance. The Web is very amenable to animation, with browsers that are attuned to animation nearly ubiquitous. We are now at the point where Walt was in 1928 (sorry about another historical note), when sound revolutionized film and live-action was forced into a straightjacket by the demands of the microphone. Animation flourishes when it easily outshines live-action in a new venue, as it did in the first rush of sound film, and we are now at the very beginning. The future of Web animation is bright, and the opportunity is yours. William Mulholland said it best when he opened the L.A. Aqueduct: "There it is. Take it."

So, there you have it -- a fearless half-dozen, all pointing to a revolution. I doubt I've called it 100% on the nose. As always, the future holds surprises for us all.

Buzz Potamkin is an award-winning independent producer, best known for The Berenstain Bears and Dr. Seuss. Before he escaped L.A. for New York, he had been President of Southern Star Productions and also Executive Vice President of Hanna-Barbera Cartoons. In the Internet world, he is on the Board of Directors of Visionary Media, the creators of WhirlGirl.
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Note: Readers may contact any Animation World Magazine contributor by sending an e-mail to editor@awn.com.

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