Fearless Predictions
by Buzz Potamkin
 It
feels somewhat strange writing an article knowing that no one may
ever read it. If the Y2K fanatics hoarding food, water and fuel are
correct -- and not to forget the terrorists attempting to bomb us
back to the Stone Age -- all that will be left of this article as
of January 1st is a mass of non-purposed free-floating electrons,
resting in peace at the bottom of a meltdown. However, as our intrepid
editor assures me that Animation World Magazine is at the forefront
of the technological leap into the new century, and also that the
server farm is located well out of the blast pattern, I'm willing
to suspend my qualms and forge ahead.
At every turn these days one finds great minds engaging in a wrap-up
on the just ending era, millennium, century, decade, or year -- you
pick it. I've been known to look back too, for guidance on what in
the future will parallel the past. But this time I'm looking forward:
what does the future hold for all of us here in the animation bunker?
 Of
greatest concern to most of you, the need for time- and action-based
visual creativity will not diminish. Whether or not animation as we
know it perseveres, whether or not the biz continues forward on its
own version of Sherman's March through Georgia, people who create
visually -- be it draw, write, time, or even produce -- will be needed.
There are all too many reasons for this, but suffice it to say that
an art form that traces its roots back to cave painting (sorry, but
the past has its own way of creeping in) obviously answers a need
buried deep in our collective psyche. And the new media, as well as
the old, offer all of us opportunity to explore and create nearly
ad infinitum, perhaps even ad nauseum.
So, here goes a half-dozen fearless predictions, in no particular
order:
1. Kids TV animation as we know it will continue to collapse as
a meaningful business.
 There
are no rules that require an audience to sit quietly in front of a
gently flickering primitive device to seek solace, just as there are
no rules that require us to sit quietly in a darkened cave to watch
images dance on a wall. OK, I know that churches and movie theaters
still attract significant numbers of patrons, but -- in both cases
-- nothing like they did in their days of incomparable glory. It wasn't
that long ago that the greatest minds of their time were completing
animation storyboards on the walls of churches throughout Europe,
but I don't see too many of us doing that now. (Yep, the Arena,
Brancacci
and Sistine
Chapels were stops along the road between the caves and Pokemon.)
 The
sorrowful state of the kids
advertising market has been chronicled
within Animation World Magazine in the past, so there is no
need to detail it here. Let it just be said that any market that has
a significant surplus of supply will see a drop in the "clearing"
demand price. CPM (Cost per Thousand, the basic currency of advertising
pricing) has no place to go but down, and the resultant winnowing
of profits must (as it has and will continue to) reduce the production
marketplace, except for the artificial demand generated by government
support, which leads to
2. The non-U.S. governments (and multi-governmental units) that
support kids TV animation production will tire of throwing money down
the sewer, and animation around the world will have to stand on its
own financially.
 Animation
in Canada, France, and other locales in the European Union, is mainly
a means of income redistribution: taxes and tax preferences are transferring
wealth from general taxpayers to a select group of fellow citizens,
without any sort of means testing or quality standards. This is done
under the guise of "cultural protection" and other vote-gathering
criteria, but it will eventually meet with political opposition, as
the sums involved become necessary for other needs.
Animation workers are not the only beneficiaries of this sort of financial
gift. French farmers have a far greater call on the swill, and haven't
been afraid to express support for their share by violence -- but
I do doubt we'll see animators bringing disks into the street and
stopping Parisian traffic. As the governments face the hard choices
on income transfer in the future, animation will not be first at the
trough. (The reasons for the future reduction of these income transfers
are complex and compelling, but don't fit in here. If you want to
know more, do some research in the economics press, especially those
journals that cover Europe.)
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