With two strong contenders for the third nomination, DreamWorks could defeat itself in having Ghost in the Shell 2: Innocence and Shark Tale cancel each other out. Ghost in the Shell 2 images courtesy of Go Fish Pictures. Shark Tale © DreamWorks Pictures.

Like Disney, DreamWorks has the other lock with Shrek 2, but it also has two other very strong contenders in Ghost in the Shell 2: Innocence and Shark Tale. The studio seems to be pushing Ghost in the Shell 2 and Shark Tale equally. The Japanese import has the critical acclaim and Shark Tale has the box office success. As for Ghost’s chances, critically acclaimed imports haven’t done that well at Oscar time. Other than Spirited Away, no other Japanese film has been nominated and only one other foreign film — Triplets of Belleville. Ghost in the Shell 2 is very anime, and though anime is popular with the youngsters, will Academy voters bite? As for Shark Tale, the tone and humor is very Shrek-like, so will voters want two of the same thing? Plus, only Disney has been able to pull off more than one nomination in the same year.

With that said, it’s up to the other studios to steal the final nomination from DreamWorks. Warner Bros. has two contenders with Clifford’s Really Big Movie and The Polar Express. Clifford’s looks like an entry only to make sure that the Animated Feature category will go in effect. (WB also had the foresight not to even enter Yu-Gi-Oh!: The Movie into the competition.)

So Warners is putting its marketing might behind The Polar Express. With big names like director Robert Zemeckis and star Tom Hanks attached, this film gets built in buzz that Ghost in the Shell 2 could only dream for. So there are a couple factors in play here. Buzz, box office and “performance capture.”

Buzz is good for the film and the source material is revered. In some circles, the film and Hanks are being talked about for award nominations in non-animated categories. However, it’s lackluster opening box office performance gives a few extra points in favor of Shark Tale, which also has big name stars creating buzz. So what it really comes down to is whether Academy members will be creeped out by the “performance capture.”

If The Polar Express creeps too many Academy members out, The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie could sneak in and make a stand for 2D animation. The Polar Express © 2004 Warner Bros. Ent. All rights reserved.

Critics ranging from the L.A. Times to CNN have already panned the film as a remake of The Night of the Living Dead. Another major factor is Zemeckis’ previous statements that the film isn’t animated. He makes it clear that he directed Hanks, who performed the roles. The producers are also pushing the film in the visual effects category. Considering that the WB felt to enter it in the animated category and extensive animation had to be done to bring the characters’ and non-human elements to life, Zemeckis’ words could come back to haunt him more than Death Becomes Her.

So with Ghost in the Shell 2, Shark Tale and The Polar Express having hurdles to overcome on their way to the final three, Paramount may sneak in and steal it away with The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie. I’m serious folks — think Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius. The Academy likes good films that are popular. Everybody loves SpongeBob. He could be the Helen Hunt of toondom, making a successful transition from TV to film. It would also be a safe nomination as well. The Academy went with Treasure Planet over Bill Plympton’s Mutant Aliens, Neutron over Waking Life and Brother Bear over Millennium Actress and Tokyo Godfather. Give them too many challenging or questionable choices and they may pick the simple sponge. Films like Spirit, which got nominated in 2003, represent the good-natured, traditional perception of what animation is supposed to be.