John C. Donkin.

Who would have predicted then that a computer, that sits on an average desk with 100 times the speed and 100 times the RAM, would be 1/100 of the cost a mere 12 years later.

It's Impossible to Say
This is the dilemma we face as we try to predict what will come in the future of computer animation. Where will the new advances come from? The images that we produce today are 100 times more complex than they were in the mainframe era. Yet we still face challenges in trying to produce images with the richness of what is found in the real world. Behind all of the advances and staggering images which dazzle us, is an equally amazing technological display. Somehow, the technical artisans have reduced what we see with our own eyes into something which can be described in mathematical ways. Visionary film directors are seeing the potential in our medium and keep pushing us to produce new techniques to supply their vision. We see it on the screen every day, from commercials to blockbusters.

Fabricating Reality?
Current computer animated films often feature creatures and characters which are more easily defined on a computer. Things like toys and bugs are less complicated than furry critters like monkeys and rabbits, but this is clearly where we are headed. Soon, there will be no limit to the types of characters that can be realized on a computer. What we will be able to create will not stop at reality. One wonders about our industry's obsession with producing photorealistic imagery. But as we get to the point that we can convincingly represent reality, we will then be able to convincingly represent fantasy as if it were reality.

The rendering of convincing human characters in anything other than wide shots still eludes us. Things like hair and skin remain a difficult challenge, let alone the nuances of human movement. As humans we have developed an amazingly sophisticated critical eye when we look at ourselves or other people. We are able to detect, without thinking, even the tiniest of flaws that clue us in that what we are seeing isn't real. It comes down to point of reference. From our very first glimpses as babies we look to the faces of our parents, studying them. It is precisely this familiarity which makes representing humans and human motion so difficult. It's much easier to represent something convincingly if we have nothing to compare it against.

Some see the development of motion capture as a solution to this problem, and it may well be for certain types of applications. However, the literal translation of life-like human motion onto a life-like rendering of a human doesn't guarantee success. The animated human must be able to convey convincing emotions. Matching proportions, body weight and height are a crucial part of this solution.