So with Madagascar and Chicken Little seemingly the best of the rest when it comes to landing a ticket to the big show, how do they stack up against each other? First, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that both make the list and leave Corpse Bride a bridesmaid but never a bride. As to date, Madagascar is the top grossing animated feature of the year. And the Academy loves a winner. Last year DreamWorks nabbed two nods for Shrek 2 and Shark Tale with the latter being a sign of the Academy going for the popular pick over more critically acclaimed, but smaller films, like Ghost in the Shell 2.

Up until the opening weekend numbers were released, Chicken Little looked like an outside shot for Oscar gold. But with two weekends at #1, the film starring the little bird who thought the sky was falling is a real player. Being in recent headlines will help the film generate word of mouth, which has died off a bit for Madagascar. However, DreamWorks’ CG entry was arrived on DVD, putting it into homes. The Disney legacy may also be a factor in the game. Will Disney haters take it out on the studio’s first foray into CG?

The studio did opt to not even enter its own in-house 2D film, Pooh’s Heffalump Movie, which had a worldwide gross of $52 million against a $20 million budget versus Valiant’s $55 million worldwide gross and $35 million budget. However, Academy members remembering the golden days of Disney outweigh the naysayers and may reward the studio’s success in the new medium with a tip of the hat and an Oscar nod.

With the feature race looking like it has only four fillies in the running, at this point the shorts category seems wide open. The real buzz for the shorts doesn’t really hit its stride until the short list arrives, but this year a bunch of films have made people already sit up and notice.

With a win at Annecy, The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello looks like one of the leaders for an Oscar short nod. © Monster Distributes Ltd.

After winning Annecy, Anthony Lucas’ The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello looks like one of the top contenders. The 20-minute-plus running time really doesn’t hurt its chance in the Academy’s short category for Oscars tend to like mini-opuses. In an interesting note, Monster Distributes have picked up the rights to the film to release it on DVD. Monster also distributes the Academy Award-winning short film, Harvie Krumpet. Does Monster have psychic abilities?

Some other big films that played at Annecy are also in the hunt. Igor Kovalyov’s somber ode, Milch, has been gaining praise and awards as it has made the festival rounds this year. The Ottawa Festival winner may be the only other safe bet outside of Morello for the Oscar. Gaëlle Denis’ City Paradise picked up a special distinction at Annecy, which is high praise for a film that had little word prior to the event. Louise by Anita Lebeau won the Annecy 2005/Canal J” Junior jury award for short film and has gone on to win prizes at other international events. Melina Sydney Padua’s Agricultural Report has been a crowd-pleaser wherever it has played. Famed animation historian John Canemaker’s The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation has been well received at many festivals and the filmmaker’s name alone puts him in contention.

There are other animation superstars that have new films, which can’t be overlooked as well. Oscar-nominee Bill Plympton has his new short, The Fan and the Flower. Likewise, fellow Oscar-nominee John Dilworth has his new short, Life in Transition. Koji Yamamura received an Oscar nod for his film, Mt. Head, and his Old Crocodile, a rendition of a Japanese folk story, puts him in the race again. Don Hertzfeldt earned a past nomination for his hilarious short Rejected, but only time will tell if Academy members will accept his epic short, The Meaning of Life. Patrick Smith is a well-respected animator with a distinctive style, who might land his first ticket to the dance with Handshake.

Laughs are always a plus when it comes to Oscar animated shorts consideration and Candy Kugel and Vincent Cafarelli’s Command Z delivers with satirical wit. Famed New York filmmaker Michael Sporn, whose work is available on DVD, is back with a new film called The Man Who Walked Between the Towers. The bizarre and highly inventive CG style of Rosto’s comicbook inspired Jona/Tomberry may entrance Academy voters or scare them to death. On the lighter side, Disney animator Mike Blum’s The Zit has been making the festival rounds and could fall into the slick, conventional slot that Blur Studios’ Gopher Broke nabbed last year. And last but not least of the superstar contenders is Henry Selick with Moongirl. In a year of stop-motion, this special jury winner from Ottawa has a big advantage.

Likewise, there are big studios entering shorts, as well as a newbie that needs to be watched. DreamWorks’ Madagascar Penguins In a Christmas Caper, which screened before Wallace & Gromit and appears on the Madagascar DVD, will have the most exposure. Pixar has a new short, which isn’t a guaranteed nomination, but its Pixar. The film is One Man Band and it debuted at Annecy, but won’t be seen by a wider audience until it screens in front of Cars next year. Studio Ghibli has a short in contention called Dore Dore no Uta and Canada’s National Film Board has The True Story of Sawney Beane.

Another interesting contender that has quietly emerged is Warner Bros.’ new Tom & Jerry short, The Karateguard. As for that newcomer I mentioned — Shane Acker has won multiple awards at Annecy and took the top prize at SIGGRAPH for his student film 9. With a feature deal in the works, Acker has a great shot at adding an Oscar nomination to his already impressive résumé.

All talk is relative and things can change. The features competition looks like Wallace & Gromit is the film to beat and that Corpse Bride, Chicken Little and Madagascar will have to slug it out for the final two slots. Until the short list comes out for the animated shorts, it’s pretty much anyone’s guess who will be nominated. The answers to these and many other intriguing Oscar-related questions will be known by all Jan. 31, 2006, when the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences announces its nominations for the 78th Annual Academy Awards.

Rick DeMott is the managing editor of Animation World Network. In his free time, he works as an animation writer for television. Previously, he held various production and management positions in the entertainment industry. He is a contributor to the book Animation Art as well as the humor, absurdist and surrealist short story website Unloosen.