From an upcoming Lucas Arts DVD ROM game. © Lucas Arts.

DVD RAM, capable of being written to, erased, and recorded over many times. Hollywood Studios are about as receptive to recordable DVD's as Disney might be to a porno film featuring Mickey Mouse. The hardware companies, having just settled on a standard for DVD, are bashing each other again over this new format. See "Stage Two."

BANDWIDTH, or the issue of whether cable companies will be able to deliver full-motion video over fiber optic networks, is a question that seriously bedevils this industry. If you can play Command and Conquer against someone in Omaha at a fraction of the cost of a computer with an MPEG2 card and DVD ROM, why should you buy a DVD drive at all?

The Good News For Developers
In the past, the companies who brought out new platforms were in a panic to get developers to make products for their standard. Philips, for example, sponsored a Hollywood studio-like arrangement with up-and-coming content providers like Sidewalk Studios for their CD-I platform. There may be similar deals to come when DVD ROM hits the market.

Even if the big manufacturers should decide to sit on their wallets and let the studios fill out the content in these new formats, several potential revenue streams for animators, animation houses, and 3D graphics houses should open up. One example is the success of Odyssey Productions, whose popular Mind's Eye videos and collections of computer animations are now available on DVD. Additionally, the re-publishing of classic titles on DVD and DVD ROM should give new cash to struggling production companies to fund new projects.

Economic Democracy In Action
The glory of this whole process is that we get a vote. When we buy into a technology, we inherently reject one platform for another. My advice: sit tight.

It's not a good idea to buy an early DVD set-top machine unless you have $500 just burning a hole in your pocket. In the short term, DIVX may well take off next year and become an addition to the average machine, just as Dolby stereo became integral to cassette machines years ago. In the longer term, the broadcasters must settle their questions about High Density television, and specialized lasers need to be developed that will be compatible with this format. Finally, the growth in video on demand, Web TV, and fiber-optic networks (which promise to deliver full-motion video and interactivity) might well provide whatever application you were going to use that DVD for at a more reasonable price.

On the other hand, consumers are certainly subsidizing the growth of technology. If you feel that process is important, go and vote for the consumer electronics manufacturer of your choice. Perhaps, if the "trickle down" theory works, you'll be supporting a whole new generation of innovators, inventors, and artists. Then again, you might just be contributing to a vicious cycle.

For a humorous look at the history of failed technologies, take a look at Russel Bekins' illustrative charts, "Archeological Discoveries: The Year 3050," and "The Great Wrestling Match."

Russell Bekins is a writer and media and story analyst working in Hollywood. He has worked for such film companies as MGM, Tri-Star, CAA and labored mightily (not to mention fruitlessly) as a development executive at Disney-based Tidewater Entertainment. Most recently he has written for a satirical website, Betacapsule.com, detailing the despair of a small high-tech company.