Our intrepid reporter recently stumbled into a copy of The Art of War by Sun Tsu, abandoned, no doubt, by some consumer electronics manufacturer overcome by a momentary attack of ethics at this year's COMDEX convention in Las Vegas. It had the following notes scribbled inside the cover:

1. Develop my new "killer application."
2. Battle to get others to adopt my standard; develop allies.
3. Prepare for the counter-attack of competing products or standards.
4. Launch my application (or compromise) with vigorous campaigning.
5. Quietly abandon my old standard.
6. Develop new "killer application."

"5 years" was written below it on the page, and underlined twice. We believe that this is undoubtedly the smoking gun to a new industry conspiracy. Read on if you dare.

Now Appearing In A Store Near You
The event that video aficionados and multimedia geeks have been anticipating for two years finally happened this year. Digital Versatile Disc players finally appeared in stores, with their crisp quality and superior sound. CD-sized movies are being sold in music and video stores, at a cost slightly above sell-through VHS titles (about $20 - $30) with quality as good as or better than laser disc. At the dawn of the era of the "home theater," DVD set-top boxes are being touted as the greatest home entertainment invention since sex.

What they won't tell you about the DVD player now for sale is that it may just be an interim technology. Though the format has been in discussion for several years, and is likely to be around for a while, changes are coming, and savvy consumers are wary.

Stage One: The Killer App Migrates
Years ago, when the CD standard had just begun, consumer electronics giants Sony and Philips were able to enforce their patents on the medium, and now make a penny or so on every CD made in the world. Every new technology since that time has been an attempt to find the new paradigm that will follow this incredibly lucrative model. It has led to some huge boondoggles, some perfectly amazing industry cat-fights, and some very angry consumers (see archeological chart).

Stage Two: Pax Toshiba
The DVD format which has finally emerged after years of development and bitter format battles is the war-child of harrowing write-offs for hardware developers. It was developed partly by Toshiba, and negotiated by an exclusive club of bickering consumer electronics manufacturers known as the DVD Consortium (affectionately referred to as the "Gang of Ten"). The format uses a video compression standard known as MPEG2, and most movies made for this standard will include high-quality Dolby A3 sound channels. The resulting quality is generally acknowledged to be as good or better than laser discs when the digital compression and mastering is done right. However, the rush to get a few of the early titles out and into the stores has generated more than a few poorly-mastered demonstration discs.

Since everyone has agreed on the same format and will be producing essentially the same product (the assumption goes), economy of scale will kick in. Prices on the machines will drop to the point where they're affordable. Movie titles will be available at competitive costs and take up less room under your television set.

"But wait a bit," the cynics cry. "This thing does not replace my VCR. It does not record my favorite television shows, nor is it likely to in the foreseeable future. I hear all these things about competing technologies. Why should I buy one of these overpriced machines now?"

Good question.