It feels somewhat strange writing an article knowing that no one may ever read it. If the Y2K fanatics hoarding food, water and fuel are correct -- and not to forget the terrorists attempting to bomb us back to the Stone Age -- all that will be left of this article as of January 1st is a mass of non-purposed free-floating electrons, resting in peace at the bottom of a meltdown. However, as our intrepid editor assures me that Animation World Magazine is at the forefront of the technological leap into the new century, and also that the server farm is located well out of the blast pattern, I'm willing to suspend my qualms and forge ahead.

At every turn these days one finds great minds engaging in a wrap-up on the just ending era, millennium, century, decade, or year -- you pick it. I've been known to look back too, for guidance on what in the future will parallel the past. But this time I'm looking forward: what does the future hold for all of us here in the animation bunker?

Of greatest concern to most of you, the need for time- and action-based visual creativity will not diminish. Whether or not animation as we know it perseveres, whether or not the biz continues forward on its own version of Sherman's March through Georgia, people who create visually -- be it draw, write, time, or even produce -- will be needed. There are all too many reasons for this, but suffice it to say that an art form that traces its roots back to cave painting (sorry, but the past has its own way of creeping in) obviously answers a need buried deep in our collective psyche. And the new media, as well as the old, offer all of us opportunity to explore and create nearly ad infinitum, perhaps even ad nauseum.

So, here goes a half-dozen fearless predictions, in no particular order:

1. Kids TV animation as we know it will continue to collapse as a meaningful business.

There are no rules that require an audience to sit quietly in front of a gently flickering primitive device to seek solace, just as there are no rules that require us to sit quietly in a darkened cave to watch images dance on a wall. OK, I know that churches and movie theaters still attract significant numbers of patrons, but -- in both cases -- nothing like they did in their days of incomparable glory. It wasn't that long ago that the greatest minds of their time were completing animation storyboards on the walls of churches throughout Europe, but I don't see too many of us doing that now. (Yep, the Arena, Brancacci and Sistine Chapels were stops along the road between the caves and Pokemon.)

The sorrowful state of the kids advertising market has been chronicled within Animation World Magazine in the past, so there is no need to detail it here. Let it just be said that any market that has a significant surplus of supply will see a drop in the "clearing" demand price. CPM (Cost per Thousand, the basic currency of advertising pricing) has no place to go but down, and the resultant winnowing of profits must (as it has and will continue to) reduce the production marketplace, except for the artificial demand generated by government support, which leads to

2. The non-U.S. governments (and multi-governmental units) that support kids TV animation production will tire of throwing money down the sewer, and animation around the world will have to stand on its own financially.

Animation in Canada, France, and other locales in the European Union, is mainly a means of income redistribution: taxes and tax preferences are transferring wealth from general taxpayers to a select group of fellow citizens, without any sort of means testing or quality standards. This is done under the guise of "cultural protection" and other vote-gathering criteria, but it will eventually meet with political opposition, as the sums involved become necessary for other needs.