Months ago, when I first approached AWM about this article, the idea of a simple summation of my experiences in the world of the Web enticed me into believing that the words would flow with the usual rapidity and the piece would be short and sweet. Instead I've found myself struggling and sweating (the East Coast heat wave hasn't helped), throwing away far too many drafts, attempting to delineate what at first appears to be obvious, but on closer examination turns out to be far more subtle, not to mention complex. (Along the way I discarded the "this is what it is and here's how you do it" mode, so if you want that, go over to the Macromedia site for a complete rundown, free demos and downloads, and links to other sites.)

It is easy to say that the Web (or the Net, if you prefer) is the communications medium of the future, and no one will argue. It is also easy to say that other media will have to adjust to this new reality, and again no one will challenge the statement. However, it is not easy to predict the scope of the transformation, the speed of the change, or the degree to which the status quo ante will be destroyed. And, you may ask, how the hell does all this relate to animation? Well, at least that answer is simple: disintermediation, and its consequences.

But before we get to disintermediation, let me digress for a personal note: the basis of the original idea for this article. When, aided by the 1994 Northridge earthquake, the siren call of New York became too great, we (my wife and I) decamped from the sybaritic hills of Los Angeles to return to the wilds of Greenwich Village. At that time I felt that the TV animation world was in the midst of a convulsion of disintegration, a process that had begun earlier in the late `80s and was going to continue through the `90s. Quite simply, there was an explosion of supply (more to the point, leading to over-supply) that would eventually drive the price paid down to levels that for the most part would turn the production of episodic TV into a cost center for vertically integrated media conglomerates. That's exactly where it is today, putting aside the massive support paid by governments around the world to keep local animation workers (and voters) happily employed.

The outlets for the independent producer were shrinking, almost to the point of disappearance, as DreamWorks later discovered to its dismay. The only bright spot left in TV was direct-to-video, and yours truly (along with a raft of others) anchored in this safe harbor while the storm raged. Even there, however, you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wild blows, and (to mix metaphors) the handwriting was already on the wall.

In the past, I had been an "early adopter" (as they say in market speak) of various new technologies: my first computer use was in 1957; my first use of video editing was before the invention of electronic editing (don't ask -- it was rough); my first use of CGI was in the Neanderthal days; my first work in cable was before cable was cool; and my first PC was an Osborne. So where was the world going - and how was animation going there?

It's hard to believe now that it's only a few years since I first saw Mosaic. (For those of you who don't know geek history, Marc Andreessen wrote Mosaic over the Christmas break in 1992, while he was at NCSA/UIUC. A little bit over a year later he was part of the team that left NCSA and formed a small company to develop Mosaic further. This little company soon thereafter changed its name to Netscape. If you haven't guessed yet, Mosaic is the DNA of the browser - Netscape or Internet Explorer or AOL -- you're using to read this.) I'd like to say that my first glimpse struck me like a lightening bolt, that I immediately saw the future laid out before me, but I can't, because I didn't.

My response was positive but muted, and I didn't even pay close attention to the Web for about a year - I was still in L.A., and more consumed by the immediate problems of creating and producing shows at a large studio. From that viewpoint, I could foresee how Mosaic (or any other browser) would change how we made cartoons. I could also see how it would change the flow of information in the studio, and in the larger world between businesses, but I didn't foresee that it would change the whole future of the biz - that took some time. (Although I did mention to the suits at the studio that I could imagine a future in which we became just a repository for materials that the consumer utilized to create his/her own show. They didn't like the idea - it meant a loss of control.)