Directly or indirectly out of barter syndication came the genesis of the Disney Afternoon, the Fox Kids Network, Kids' WB!, and UPN Kids, which all led eventually to the destruction of barter syndication itself. Disney, Fox, the WB and UPN fought (still fight, in some cases) over outlets and timeslots.

Stations discovered that open timeslots were even more valuable than they thought, and independent distributors soon found that barter had a new wrinkle: timeslots were rare, so clearance payments to the stations soon became the norm, and the profitability of these shows withered. Major advertisers could avoid the clearance payments, but the number of barter shows inevitably declined in the '90's as the new networks lined up affiliates and locked up the choice timeslots.

The New Kid on the Block
We all know that Cable broke out in the '80's, and Nickelodeon burst through the cable clutter to grab kids in the early '90's, soon to be followed by the Cartoon Network, both of which are shortly to be joined by Fox. In such a rapidly changing audience as kids (a generational turnover every 5 years for the main portion of the demographic), the power of these new players cannot be overestimated.

Currently, according to the trade press, Nick gets 56% of kids viewership, and Cartoon another 18%. That leaves just 26% for the others: broadcast (ABC, CBS, Fox, NBC, UPN, the WB) and syndication. Once Fox jumps in on cable, and if Disney Channel changes to ad-supported (rumored), it won't be long before cable controls 90% of the market. Remember that just 15 years ago the (then) 3 broadcast networks controlled 90%; the phenomenal upheaval in the advertising end of the business is moving so fast that many advertisers have not yet caught up to the news.

Of course, these new cable players require hundreds of program timeslots to be filled each week with animation: Cartoon alone has to fill 336 half-hours every 7 days; the others need fewer, as they also run live shows as well as sharing channel space nearly half the day with an older demographic doppelganger. Nick has announced a commitment to spend $350 million over the next few years making new animated shows; the others have not made their plans public, but they have indicated that new animation production will be a high priority. Even if Cartoon and Fox each spend only 25% of what Nick plans, then we're looking at over $500 million being invested in TV animation over the next few years. This is very good for job prospects.

Econ 101
If 90% of kid viewership goes to cable, what does this mean for the non-cable folks? How much new production will they need? Aye, matey, there's the rub. The broadcast networks can't leave the kids business; under current law, each broadcast station is required to air 3 hours a week of kids "educational" material, and affiliates of the networks will look to those networks to take this headache off their hands. But will it be animated? And will any of these broadcast networks be able to retain a critical mass in kids for advertisers?

More importantly, where will the advertisers be buying? In the mid-'80s, with ad spending at roughly $400 million, there were approximately 100,000 national commercial spot slots available to advertisers per year, mainly barter syndication on weekdays and Saturday morning on the three networks. By 1999, with ad spending expected to top $1 billion, there will be over 500,000 national commercial spot slots available to advertisers per year, at least 85% on cable, with the other players sharing the rest.

Advertisers rarely lag too far behind current market conditions. For those of you who took economics in college, remember the Law of Supply and Demand. And don't forget Gresham's Law. For those of you who didn't take economics, look up both of them. They're the best tools we have to forecast the future of the advertisers' relationship to TV animation.

Buzz Potamkin is an award-winning independent producer, best known for The Berenstain Bears and Dr. Seuss. Before he escaped L.A. for New York, he had been President of Southern Star Prods and then Executive Vice President of Hanna-Barbera Cartoons.