Is Paprika good enough to beat all odds and get an Oscar nod? © 2006 MADHOUSE/Sony Pictures Ent. (Japan) Inc.

The last four eligible films -- A Scanner Darkly, Renaissance, Curious George and Paprika -- are the only threats to CG's dominance this year. If Monster House still has the performance capture/ rotoscoping stigma working against it then Warner Independent's A Scanner Darkly and Miramax's Renaissance don't even have a slim chance of getting over that hump toward an Oscar nod. Historically, the younger skewing a film is the less likely it is to get nominated, so that leaves Universal's Curious George pretty much out of the race. So what about Paprika? Sony Pictures Classics' release of Madhouse's anime film from Millennium Actress and Tokyo Godfather director Satoshi Kon is an out-of-the-blue entry. Word is that if people see it; it will be nominated. However, anime without Hayao Miyazaki's name attached to it hasn't done well is the past.

As always, buzz on the animated shorts is at a minimum until at least the short list is announced. However, the clear frontrunner at this point would have to be Joanna Quinn's Dreams and Desires -- Family Ties, which won a prize at Annecy and took home the top award at Ottawa, as well as the Cartoon d'Or among a multitude of other festival honors. Likewise, Annecy winner Tragic Story Happy Ending by Regina Pessoa is still a top contender even though it hasn't been collecting awards at the same rate as Dreams and Desires.

However, this year seems to be a potentially big year for studio produced shorts. Pixar seems to be always a lock in any animated category as long as it enters something, so its alien abduction short, Lifted, looks like a shoo-in too. Blue Sky has another Scrat short with No Time For Nuts, while DreamWorks launched into the shorts business in a big way with First Flight. And lets not forget Disney's much-debated 2D short, The Little Matchgirl.

Smaller studios also have big 3D shorts in the running as well. Blur Studios' returns with A Gentleman's Duel, a slick, gag-filled short that skews a bit older than its previously nominated short Gopher Broke. Additionally, Charlex Film has its nearly photoreal SIGGRAPH-winning short film, One Rat Short, directed by Alex Weil.

There are also some big names in animation with new shorts. Bill Plympton has the sequel to his Oscar-nominated Guard Dog, titled, Guide Dog. Patrick Smith's Puppet could give the veteran New York animator his first nod. Don Hertzfeld, who was nominated for Rejected, has put out Everything Will Be OK.

If Lifted is too light and The Runt too dark, is Dreams and Desires just right for Oscar voters' tastes? Lifted © Pixar Animation Studios. The Runt © Hydake/Film Bilder. Dreams and Desires © Jo

Falling into the "hope they're not too dark for their own good" category are several films. Multi-festival-winner Milch fell into this category last year and didn't get an Oscar nod too. First on the list this year would have to be Andreas Hykade's brilliant film, The Runt, which is a delicacy that many Academy members may find too hard to swallow. Next might be Jonas Odell's equally brilliant Never Like the First Time. At the Quinte Hotel from Bruce Alcock also deals with dark subject matter, but its literary link to Charles Bukowski may help its chances a bit. It's quite disheartening to think that three of the clearly best animated shorts of 2006 might not make the Oscar cut simply because they are too challenging.

Other films to watch out for include: Adam Parrish King's The Wraith of Cobble Hill, which screened at Sundance; Torill Kove's The Danish Poet, which was made at the NFB; Geza Toth's Maestro, which made big impressions at festivals like Anima and Zagreb; and Osbert Parker's Film Noir, which was nominated for a 2005 British Academy Award.

As with every year, all the talk is only talk until the nominations are announced. The Academy will let us know what it thinks on Jan. 23, 2007. Until then hopefully this piece helps sort out some of the true contenders from the real pretenders.

Rick DeMott is the managing editor of Animation World Network. In his free time, he works as an animation writer for television. His work on the new series, Growing Up Creepie, can be seen on Discovery Kids. Previously, he held various production and management positions in the entertainment industry. He is a contributor to the book Animation Art as well as the humor, absurdist and surrealist short story website Unloosen.