Movie! Movie!
What's funnier than a Presidential election hamstrung by recounts, lawyers and scads of chad piled higher than the budget for Dinosaur? Why, it's my own predictions about the cinematic winners for the year 2000! If you check back to my January column of last year "Year In, Year Out," you will find the following fiascoes of clairvoyance: Fantasia/2000 to gross $225 million (Actual gross: $59,103,478), Chicken
Run to be a noble but ultimately unprofitable venture with a take of $28 million (Actual gross: $106,793,915), and Vortex to earn $25 million (What? The picture was canceled!?).
I selected two films to break into the hallowed animated top ten of all time as measured by box office gross, and not one film released in the millennium year managed to join that august circle. You heard it here first folks: The Cubs take the Series next year. There is some solace to be gained: I was at least as good as prognosticators using the science of "audience response tracking" to project the final take of Hollywood films over the past year (and at a much cheaper price, I might add). It might be reasonable to assume that I would simply pack up my crystal ball for 2001 and spare myself future humiliations, but your monthly columnist does not know the meaning
of the word "reasonable." As long as I am looking at the future year in feature films and not controlling the keys to the President's nuclear "football," none of you need worry; I can only incinerate myself.
Out of the running for this column (since it will not appear until after these films are released) are The Emperor's New Groove and Rugrats in Paris. I will, however, venture to say that it may not be too surprising if the precocious potty-pals pull a preponderance of the prize. As much as I admired Mark Dindal's direction on Cats Don't Dance (now, there's one film that should demand a re-count), this project has been far too disorganized. Whether this film was once called Kingdom of the Sun or Kingdom in the Sun, it appears that the whole endeavor has spent too much time in the sun. During its stint in Production Hell, this film has had
so many conceptual problems that some insiders thought that Atlantis: The Lost Empire might actually beat it to the screen. The entire tone of the picture was reconceived, and the new title sounds like a desperate attempt to slap a hip grin on a panicked face. This might just be Disney's biggest box office bust in years. The Rugrats, on the other hand, have already proven they can bust a move past the $100 million barrier, and the experienced direction of Stig Berqvist
and Paul Demeyer will guarantee that nothing goes too badly astray. Look for theaters to fill with the kids who comprise this show's most loyal audience...and the parents who have to schlep them there. Now for the features of 2001. Note: The nine top-grossing animated feature films for the year 2000 averaged a take of $50,179,964, but only three of those films actually grossed more than the average. Four of that top nine did not even gross half the average.
This suggests two important facts: First, it is extremely difficult for animated films to break even, let alone challenge the record books. Second, it may not get any better for the class of 2001 although there should be some exceptions. There will be some definitive losers, but don't weep too hard for them; most animated films don't have "legs"
at the box office but their videos and DVDs always seem to sell after the wreckage has settled. I have chosen to look at what should be
the top eight (possibly nine) releases for 2001, and will hazard a guess as to how they will hold up in the cinematic marketplace. Since I no longer trust any given release date (even in a trailer) I will prognosticate in alphabetical order.
Atlantis: The Lost Empire (Disney). Projected release: June, 2001.
Arrrgh, me lads! Ye can bet it won't be lost fer long! Disney goes back to the successful formula that made 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea a major hit. This time they've got a first-class sci-fi script, smashmouth CGI -- and not one song by Phil Collins! (The intriguing trailer is highly recommended.) Co-directors Kirk Wise and Gary Trousdale
are as venerable as the sunken city itself, and this film has scant competition this summer -- most of the other major releases are spring or Holiday fare. The usual Disney animation crew will be on board with talent to spare, and John Pomeroy has returned to the fold years after the Great Bluth Exodus. For those of you (including old Doc Toon) who have hungered for Disney feature animation to engage in some serious science-fiction, this should be a ripping treat. Keelhaul those faux-Broadway flicks with hero/ines questing to find their true selves! Throw the comedy-relief sidekicks overboard! Take 'er down, Cap'n! Dive! Predicted gross: $107 million.


























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