The Polar Express (30-1) Warner Bros. If budget alone determined a winner, this $270 million heartbreak would run the table. Disappointing box office, an inconsistent plot that pads the tiny source material, and the bizarre humanoids created by the mo-cap animation spell also-ran status for this train wreck. Director Robert Zemeckis and star Tom Hanks are luminaries lost in a very weird film. Look for Polar Express to come up big in the technical award categories; these are the only gifts that Oscar Claus will be handing out to Zemeckis’ movie. The Polar Express is not good enough, nor did audiences love it enough, to make it a foremost contender for Best Animated Feature. Motion (or, as Mr. Zemeckis would have it, “performance”) capture was put to far better use in the Tolkien film trilogy. The kids in this movie have an ethereal, spooky look; maybe Zemeckis should hire a few more of them and do a remake of Village of the Damned. More proof that technical virtuosity on its own does not a great film make, no matter how much money is thrown into it.

Ghost in the Shell 2 (top) and The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie (bottom) are the great 2D hopes.

Ghost in the Shell 2: Innocence (25-1) Bandai. If you’re looking for a true dark horse, this one undoubtedly qualifies. The heir and sequel to one of anime’s most complex animated features, GITS2 is a stylish opus that will have one specific problem: the movie features a preponderance of rambling, techno-philosophical conversations between the two main characters that jar against the admittedly thrilling action scenes and tend to slow the story to a crawl. This film might be called My Dinner With Andre in the Matrix. Oscar is not likely to give the film serious consideration due to its limited release, highly adult content and the mainstream moviegoer’s unfamiliarity with the first film. I could see GITS2 making the final three due to its sophistication and style, but I don’t expect the little gold gentleman to come calling. Still, GITS2 features an engrossing fusion of 2D and 3D animation (watch for the stunning parade scene) that will delight fans of the original manga and the first film.

Shark Tale (20-1) DreamWorks SKG. This finny film is a perfect example of everything that is right — and wrong — with DreamWorks 3D features. The animation is lively, the rendering near perfect, the textures are wonderful, and light and shadow fall and ripple everywhere they ought to. Yet, the story is thin, the main characters are celebrities reworked as marine life, product placement is rife, and the humor is so up-to-date and hip, this movie will be ancient by next year. Design and technical execution A+, originality D+. Like other DreamWorks projects of late, the ability to reference cultural jokes and asides is the key to fully enjoying the film. Terrific box office, fair reviews. The lead character, Oscar, is not likable; he stupidly builds up an unbearable debt, hocks his girlfriend’s family heirlooms in order to clear it, and then wagers and loses the dough on a seahorse race. Oscar becomes a celebrity on the basis of a lie and once he does so, instantly dumps his long-suffering gal for a gold(fish) digger. Only when vengeful sharks show up to settle the presumed score is the truth revealed. This fish will be the only Oscar associated with this film.

Also killing this picture’s hopes are strident protests by Italian and African-Americans over ethnic stereotyping; it may be 3D but it isn’t PC. Worse, this movie follows up last year’s Oscar winner, which had something or other to do with piscines. To paraphrase Walt Disney, you can’t top fish with fish.

The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie (20-1) Paramount. The porous yellow one has attained icon status and is one of the most heavily merchandised items in all of animation. The movie was inevitable due to SpongeBob’s enormous fan base, but films based on animated TV shows are hit-or-miss at the box office and rarely garner killer reviews. If any film has a chance to beat the odds, it’s this one due to SpongeBob’s immense crossover appeal to adults; perhaps no other show, save The Simpsons, can claim such status. Creator Steve Hillenburg had enormous control over this movie, keeping it true to its silly spirit, and his formidable voice cast is intact for the film. Still, there are major problems in adapting 10-minute cartoons into engrossing narratives nine times that length and no animated film with televised origins has truly succeeded in surmounting them. Experience with such films suggests a big opening week and then steadily diminishing returns. Also, the recent favoritism toward 3D over 2D animation may leave Bikini Bottom bereft of Oscar hardware. SpongeBob is unlikely to win but one has to admit he’d certainly make a great presenter.