Martin “Dr. Odds” Goodman.

“There’s no business like show business” as it goes, and at the time of this writing the World Series of show biz, the Oscar Awards, is being planned. Ever since the Oscars began to include animated features as a category, yearly speculation about potential winners has been as intense as that concerning live-action features. There are early frontrunners, holiday spectaculars slipping in under the wire, and long shots that never broke a weekend record but still display enough artistic merit to put up a fight for the gilded statuette. The rivalries between some of the studios represented are as well publicized as the films themselves, as are the technological battles between 2D and 3D animation. It may be that the quest for Best Animated Feature is one of the most fascinating aspects of this year’s Oscars, and with the cost of producing and promoting animated films in 2004, one of the most pivotal for the future of animated features.

Eleven films are currently under consideration as this year’s title contenders. All of them will have been released by the end of November, and it is possible to actually begin handicapping the race for the Oscar. There will be some tight competition and last-minute politicking, to be sure, but part of the fun for animation fans is trying to guess what might transpire amidst the glitzy lights of L.A. Thus, my odds for Oscar night, in descending order of likelihood, to include the final three that will actually compete for the penultimate prize.

Clifford’s Really Big Movie (1,000 - 1) Warner Bros. Cliff’s cute and he commands kiddie creed, but unless the judging committee is made up of six-year olds, the colossal crimson canine has not a prayer. Starring in a 2D film up against some of the CG monsters prowling the Oscar scene, even a pooch bigger than Clifford would be dwarfed.

The Legend of Buddha (500 - 1) Pentamedia Garphics Ltd. Just curious: What kind of stuff do they give away at the press junkets? This feature from India is an admirable effort but the (2D) animation I’ve been able to see is no better than that airing on, say, Toon Disney. Buddha saw very limited release and was virtually unseen in the United States. Never fear; the subcontinent that produced Bollywood is going to be a major player contending for Oscar, and soon.

Disney’s Teacher’s Pet (100 - 1) Walt Disney Pictures. This isn’t a bad little TV series, and the movie mainly follows suit. Its 2D animation at least has the virtue of not looking like anything else on all those other cable-based shows. There’s a plot that features genetic engineering (something you don’t typically see outside of anime) but novelty alone won’t put this film at the head of the class.

Home on the Range (75 - 1) Walt Disney Pictures. There is a goofy spirit to this flick, and its sprightly bovine heroines are fun to watch. The animation is mostly 2D and virtually spurts its udders at the CGI entries as if performing one last act of rebellion against going quietly into that good night. If the animation style were any flatter, you could slip this whole film under the door with room to spare. This a better film than its reviews indicated, but Disney’s 2D days are done and so are their hopes for one last Oscar as the inkwells dry up for good.

Korea’s biggest animated epic Sky Blue (aka Wonderful Days) is getting a late release in the U.S., which will really hurt its chances.

Sky Blue (50 - 1) Tin House Productions. If nothing else, this Korean entry directed by Moon Sang Kim certainly gives audiences their money’s worth. Cel animation, live action, miniatures and CG are all featured against the backdrop of a romantic triangle set in a devastated (is there any other kind?) future. South Korea is known as a destination for America’s runaway animation, but the country has been steadily developing its own genre known as manwha youngwha for quite some time and it’s no surprise that an Oscar contender has arisen at last. There are some nice ideas here (a city that actually runs on pollution). The animation includes every known medium, but this film is a depressing downer; too many of its dreary, post-apocalyptic statements and themes concerning oppression have been played out in countless other anime features to much better effect. Can’t anyone in Asia make an animated film in which humanity is not headed for a dark and violent future filled with nasty machines? This picture carries the alternate title, Wonderful Days, but it won’t see any come Oscar night.