The biggest factor in the 2010 Oscar race is only three films will be nominated in the features category. Fifteen films qualified and Academy rules are that sixteen films need to be in the running for five nods. Industry insiders with dogs in the fight look at Yogi Bear as the spoiler, but is it the film's fault it didn't have enough animation? 

1) Toy Story 3 
I've been making Oscar predictions for several years now and it always seems that a Pixar film is either at the top or close by. The third Woody and Buzz outing is the surefire lock in this category. The only questions are whether it's a surefire lock for Best Picture and a predestined winner in this category as a result.

2) How to Train Your Dragon 
DreamWorks' heartwarming tale of a boy and his dragon is the closest thing to a second surefire lock in this year's Oscar race. Heart and humor is a very good predictor of what is going to get nominated and this film has a genuine does of both.

3) Despicable Me 
Here is where it gets tough. Illumination and Universal's first animated feature together was a bigger hit than anyone expected. It has a lot of admirers. It's humor and heart quotient is solid. Can Gru steal a nomination? It seems very likely at this point.

4) The Illusionist 
Some have Sylvain Chomet's ode to Jacques Tati in the winner's spot. Artistically it is a beautiful film, but it's the humor and heart arenas that it leaves many viewers cold. It's not as funny as one might expect. In fact it's downright depressing. As for heart, it only crushes them with sadness. The nomination seemed a lock at one point, but I don't think it creates enough overall positive feelings to ensure a nomination. It's certainly on the bubble that's about to burst.